According to Nikkei Asia, while Apple is less exposed to potential export disruptions from India, shipments dependent on trade hubs in the Middle East may face significant declines in the coming weeks.
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Over the past year, India has emerged as one of Apple's main alternatives to China as the company seeks to diversify its manufacturing footprint. This timing has coincided with the Indian government's efforts to position the country as a global manufacturing hub, leading to a surge in exports as global brands have stepped up assembly and shipping overseas.
According to official data from India, the country exported about $11 billion in mobile phones in the first half of the fiscal year that began in April 2025, an increase of about 55% over the previous year.
However, the war in Iran is expected to disrupt this momentum. Analysts warn that smartphone exports may decline in the coming weeks, especially in channels that rely on regional trade hubs, including the United Arab Emirates. Shipments from small and medium-sized traders are being affected more than those from large, organized exports from global brands.
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Apple is one of the major brands that is less exposed to these disruptions with shipments being redirected. Still, the chaos in the region could significantly slow smartphone exports from India by 22% to 25% in the coming weeks if the crisis escalates. The report also notes that while this tension has disrupted shipments, it has not yet impacted demand.
“So far, the impact is more on transportation, while demand remains relatively resilient,” said Ahmed Shehab, a Dubai-based researcher at Counterpoint. He added that companies are temporarily moving away from hubs like Dubai and Doha and using more direct routes.
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As disruptions at key Middle Eastern hubs continue, export flows are expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks. Whether further escalation will also affect demand remains to be seen.
