The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has made its last observation of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4 — at least until the space rock returns to Earth in 2028. The latest observations reveal that while Earth is not in any immediate danger of being hit by the asteroid in the foreseeable future, the Moon may not be as lucky.
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New observations, made in May with the JWST's Near-Infrared Camera , have allowed scientists to more accurately calculate the space rock's trajectory, NASA said in a statement . The new predictions show that there is a 4.3 percent chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 — up from a previous estimate in March of 3.8 percent .
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is the size of a building, with a diameter ranging from 53 to 67 meters — about the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. If an asteroid of this size were to hit Earth, it could destroy an entire city with the force equivalent to 500 Hiroshima bombs.
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The asteroid was first discovered in December 2024, when astronomers realized that its orbit around the Sun regularly intersects with Earth's. Initial predictions for its path suggested a possible collision with Earth in 2032, with the probability of an impact peaking at 3.1% in February.
Additional observations with JWST and ground-based telescopes soon helped scientists more precisely determine the asteroid, reducing the probability of a collision with Earth to zero.
At the same time, the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon are gradually increasing. Given its size, a collision with the Moon would create a new crater, but would not cause serious consequences for Earth's natural satellite . In fact, some scientists see such a possibility as a valuable opportunity to test models for predicting asteroid impacts.
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The asteroid is currently moving towards the outer solar system, beyond the visibility of telescopes located on Earth.
Source: livescience
