Three times more data will circulate on the web in 2018
New growth drivers related to the “Internet of Things” will also play a role, such as machine-to-machine (M2M) technologies, including “smart” cars.
As predicted by the research of the large American networking company Cisco "Visual Networking Index Global Forecast and Service Adoption", global data traffic via Internet Protocol (IP) for fixed and mobile connections is expected to reach an annual volume of 1.6 zettabytes (one zettabyte is equivalent to 1,000 exabytes), i.e. more than 1.5 trillion gigabytes per year by 2018.
It is worth noting that the nature of data traffic over the internet is set to change radically in the coming years.
In 2018, for the first time in the history of the internet, the majority of data traffic will no longer come from personal computers (PCs). Also, for the first time, high-definition (HD) video will see more data traffic than standard-definition (SD) video.
The total volume of data traffic, totaling 1.6 zettabytes via the internet, on global networks in 2018 alone will exceed the traffic of all previous years combined, as from 1984 to 2013 data traffic had reached 1.3 zettabytes worldwide.
According to the research, the 2014 World Cup will be the driving force for internet traffic, as millions of viewers are expected to watch the matches online. The broadcast of the World Cup is predicted to generate 4.3 exabytes of internet traffic.
More specifically, according to the research:
– In 2018, the majority of data traffic will come from mobile or portable devices, not PCs. In 2013, the percentage of non-PC IP traffic was 33%, but by 2018 this percentage will rise to 57%. PC traffic will grow at an annual rate of 10%, while TVs (18%), tablets (74%) and smartphones (64%) will show the highest growth rates in data traffic.
– In 2013, data traffic originating from urban networks surpassed traffic via long-distance connections. Urban data traffic is set to grow at almost twice the rate of long-distance data traffic by 2018.
– By 2018, IP video will account for 79% of total IP traffic, up from 66% in 2013. Ultra HD video will account for 11% of IP video traffic in 2018, up from 0.1% in 2013. High-definition (HD) video will account for 52% by 2018 (up from 36%), while standard definition (SD) video will account for 37% (up from 64%).
– Devices connected to Wi-Fi and mobile networks will account for 76% of internet traffic by 2018, with 61% coming from Wi-Fi and 15% from mobile. By 2018, fixed-line traffic will account for only 24% of all internet traffic. In comparison, in 2013, Wi-Fi accounted for 55%, mobile for 4%, and fixed-line for 41%.
– In 2018, there will be 2.7 connected devices/connections per capita globally, up from 1.7 per capita in 2013. There will also be 7.3 billion M2M connections worldwide, or almost one M2M connection per capita, based on a population of 7.6 billion in 2018.
– Global broadband speeds will reach 42 Mbps in 2018, up from 16 Mbps at the end of 2013. The majority of broadband connections, an estimated 55%, will be faster than 10 Mbps in 2018.
– Online video will be the fastest growing home internet service, growing from 1.2 billion users to 1.9 billion users by 2018.
– Location-based services (LBS) for mobile phones will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service, growing from 236 million users in 2013 to 1 billion users in 2018.
– Personal video conferencing, as well as computer-based video conferencing, will be the fastest-growing professional online service, growing from 37 million users in 2013 to 238 million users in 2018.
In terms of regional and country forecasts, the largest volume of data traffic will come from the Asia-Pacific region in 2018 with 47.6 exabytes per month. With the largest population in the world and the largest number of devices/connections, it will maintain its leadership as the top source region for data traffic. In 2018, the countries from which the largest data traffic will come from will be the US with 37 exabytes per month and China with 18 exabytes per month.
