The algorithm of the American software giant's Bing Prediction Engine service succeeded.
Bing Prediction Engine, a Microsoft service that has correctly predicted the winner of the World Cup and the results of the English football championship, correctly guessed 20 of the 24 Oscars awarded on Sunday night. The only winners that Microsoft's algorithms did not predict were in the categories of original screenplay, animation, music and editing.
He keeps his secrets
The Bing Prediction Engine, which is not available in Greece, is headed by economist David Rothschild, based at Microsoft's research lab in New York. He became famous in 2012 when he successfully predicted the results of the US election in all 50 US states.
Rothschild doesn’t reveal details about the algorithms in his Oscars post on Microsoft’s TechnetBlog. He does say, however, that he has taken public criticism of the omission of films like Selma from the nominations seriously. Such notable absences are important for predicting winners because “they change the distribution of votes for the remaining nominations,” he says. He also notes that the predictions cannot be based on public opinion, “since the emotions and expectations of the general public are closely linked to the recognition and popularity” of the nominees.
The prediction markets
Rothschild did, however, take into account “prediction markets,” which “follow a select group of people who have superior information about what voters will do, and are willing to bet money on the results.” You can see more of Rothschild’s predictions on his website PredictWise.com, which offers predictions on a variety of political, sports, and cultural topics. At last year’s Oscars, the Bing Prediction Engine correctly predicted 21 of the 24 winners.
Source: tovima.gr
