According to a report, strong demand for the iPhone 17, an exceptionally long upgrade cycle , and a series of major new models through 2027 will see Apple emerge as the top smartphone maker by 2029, surpassing Samsung.
Apple hasn't been the top smartphone manufacturer, at least not since 2011. That position has been taken over mostly by Samsung during that time, but a combination of factors may soon allow Apple to reclaim that position.
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According to a report by Counterpoint Research, demand for the iPhone 17 will help iPhone shipments grow by 10% in 2025, compared to Samsung's 4.6% growth. The overall market will grow by 3.3%, leaving Apple with a projected market share of 19.4%.
The report also says that Apple will benefit from a series of new models to be released between 2025 and 2027, which will include significant upgrades and innovations. It is believed that the iPhone Fold and iPhone 17e in 2026 and a 20th anniversary iPhone in 2027 will help further boost sales.
These new releases are expected to boost demand for Apple products and attract new customers.
Additionally, Apple plans to expand its presence in emerging markets, where demand for smartphones is growing rapidly. This strategy is expected to further strengthen the company's position in the global market.
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Samsung, on the other hand, faces challenges in its quest to maintain its leadership position as competition intensifies and consumers seek innovative features and better value for their money.
Samsung will need to invest in new technologies and strengthen its offerings to remain competitive. Overall, the report predicts that Apple will be able to regain the top spot in the smartphone market by 2029, thanks to its innovation strategy, expansion into new markets, and its ability to attract new customers with its products.
Apple takes the lead in sales – but the install base?
These numbers only apply to sales figures, not install base. While Apple will be able to hold the crown for selling the most smartphones for a given year, it is still the smallest entity given its install base.
The global Android install base is estimated to be somewhere above 70%, while in select markets, such as the US, Apple holds a lead approaching 60%. Apple's sales growth will help its install base, but there is little chance that it will ever surpass Android as a whole .
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A separate report from Counterpoint Research showed that 79% of smartphones sold throughout most of 2025 ran Android. This is a testament to how many smartphone manufacturers rely on Android worldwide, while there is only one Apple and one product line that runs iOS.
Apple's iOS install base ranks second, while its annual sales rank first by smartphone manufacturer.
