The asteroid “Apophis” (99942 Apophis 2004 MN4), discovered in 2004, was considered one of the most threatening and dangerous asteroids, in terms of the possibility of it falling to Earth in the not-so-distant future.
However, estimates change over time, as astronomers observe it in detail and draw conclusions about its orbit. Specifically, NASA announced that new calculations of Apophis' orbit lead scientists to estimate that this will definitely not happen within the next 100 years at least.
Apophis, with a diameter of about 340 meters – about the size of the Eiffel Tower – was notorious for many years, as it was estimated that it would approach very close to Earth in 2029.However, after extensive observations of the asteroid, the risk of a collision in 2029 was ruled out. The prediction for its next close passage, in 2036.
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Until now, there was still a small chance that it would fall to Earth in 2068, but this was also eliminated, after new calculations with the help of new observations from telescopes during the recent passage of Apophis at a distance of 17,000,000 km, on March 5. But for a few more decades after 2068, the asteroid in question is not expected to pose a threat to our planet.
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Davide Farnocchia of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) said: "An impact in 2068 is no longer considered likely, and our calculations do not indicate any impact risk for at least the next 100 years." Apophis does not belong to the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, like most asteroids, but to the so-called Aten family.
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Astronomers are also working to better understand the asteroid's rotation rate and the axis around which it spins. This information will help determine the asteroid's orientation relative to Earth when it encounters planet in 2029—the year Apophis will pass within 20,000 miles (32,000 km) of Earth. This is closer than geosynchronous satellites, so it will be visible to observers in the Eastern Hemisphere without the aid of binoculars or telescopes.
