International diplomacy has traditionally relied on bargaining power, covert communication channels and personal chemistry between leaders. But a new era is coming in which the unbiased insights of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and mathematical techniques such as game theory will play an increasing role in forging agreements between nations, according to the co-founder of the world's first science center for diplomacy.
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Michael Ambühl, a professor of negotiation and conflict management and former chief Swiss-EU negotiator, said recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning mean these technologies will henceforth play a major role in international diplomacy, including at the Cop26 summit starting later this month and in post-Brexit deals on trade and migration.
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in international negotiations is in its early stages, he said, citing the use of machine learning to assess data integrity and detect fake news to ensure the diplomatic process has a reliable foundation. In the future, these technologies could be used to identify patterns in the economic data that underpin free trade agreements and to standardize certain aspects of negotiations.
The Laboratory for Science in Diplomacy, a collaboration between ETH Zürich where Ambühl is based and the University of Geneva, will also focus on “negotiation mechanics,” where existing mathematical techniques such as game theory are used either to help frame a discussion or to create different scenarios before someone engages in a conversation.
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These tools are not new. Game theory was developed in the 1920s by Hungarian-American mathematician John Von Neumann, initially to formalize the concept of “bluffing” in poker and later used to weigh up nuclear attack scenarios during the Cold War. However, until recently such techniques were absent from common use, “not because of a lack of technology but rather a lack of knowledge,” says Ambühl. “Diplomats are not that used to it.”.
But as the world becomes more technological and data-savvy, those who ignore these methods will be left behind. Ambühl said that, as Switzerland’s chief negotiator with the EU, he conducted a game theory simulation ahead of the talks that led to Switzerland joining the Schengen area and a series of agreements with the EU on tax, trade and security. The analysis showed that it was in Switzerland’s interest to negotiate as a package rather than piecemeal, and so the Swiss government insisted on that as the basis for the talks.
Source of information: theguardian.com
